There was not enough time to finish
4.25 Fire departments often do "controlled burns:" that is, they carefully burn areas of brush to prevent a destructive wildfire from starting alter. some departments use a computer model to tell when it is safe to do a burn. A fire department official with 25 years experience believed the computer model was not very good. He ignored the model, used his own judgement, and did a burn safely with no problems. But he was reprimanded by his boss for ignoring the computer. Give an argument in his defense. Give an argument in support of his boss.
The worker would say that when he started working as a fire fighter, they did not have the option of this software, he learned by using reason. also he would say that his brain can take into effect all of the conditions, and really have a better understanding of what is going on. The boss would say that the company has standardized on the modeling software so he should participle in effort, the old guy does not get spacial treatment just because he is old.
4.26 suppose there are three companies that make a similar product. One does physical tests to check the safety of the product. one uses only computer simulations. the third will not disclose the testing methods it uses. suppose ou are on jury for a case where someone's is suing on of the companies because of an injury received from the product.
a. would your decision about awarding money to the plaintiff be be affected by the company's policy about testing? if so how? if not, what factors are more important to you?
b. suppose reliable data show that the injury for the product is almost identical for all three companies. With that additional information, would your decision be affected by the company's testing policy.
a. My decision about awarding money would be affected by the policys about the testing, the one company that will not release their information seem very questionable. I feel most comfortable with the physical testing and then the computer modeling close behind, and very uncomfortable with the one that is not mentioned.
b. with the second information, i would want to compare all of the testing results. If all of the different companies had the same problem then it was something that all three companies were looking over.
4.27 An article in the magazine in 1993 stated that "since the 1960's more than 100 separte studies have confirmed that doubling of the CO2 concentration would raise average surface temperatures by one to four degrees centigrade." was this an accurate statement? Explain your answer.
- I agree with this statement but in the reading it refers to an idea of a potential new ice age, this is obvisoly incorrect and it shows that computer modeling is not always correct. This is correct because all of these different studies used computer models, The models use past knowledge and then create a hypothesis for the future based on what was entered into the computer model.
4.28 which of the following models do you think would produce very accurate results? which do you think would be less reliable?
Reliable
- Income tax- that is forumal based
- moon- science based
- co2 science based
Not reliable
- optical fiber- 30 years is a long time
- speed of a boat- conditions are always different
4.29 suppose you have the following data:
- The number of tons in the known reserves of an important natural resources say copper
- the average amount of the resource used per person (worldwide) per year
- the total population of the world.
Suppose a computer program uses these data to determine in how many years the resource will run out. it also uses and ..... Out of time....
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